Renowned analytics provider Glassnode is reporting that current on-chain indicators suggest the Bitcoin market could be getting into its later stages.
Within a recent 22nd March Week on Chain report, on-chain analytics provider Glassnode outlined a decline within the number of Bitcoin whales despite consistent accumulation from wallets holding 1 BTC or less since the month of March 2018.
“The persistent accumulation of smallholders demonstrates a willingness to HODL via ongoing volatility with the trend unbroken from mid-2018 through the chaos of 2020,” the report added.
Whale addresses holding over 100 BTC are relatively flat by comparison, with the group presently holding 62.6% of the availability – a rise of just 0.87% over the past 12 months.
Drawing on its “Reserve Risk” metric – which is employed to assess the arrogance of long-term holders relative to the worth of Bitcoin, Glassnode asserts a BTC “wealth transfer” from long-term holders to new buyers is presently ongoing.
The report revealed that bull markets generally follow a similar wealth transfer path over three distinct phases, that can be used to estimate what stage the present cycle is in. Peak hold phases are inflection points where the most important proportion of long-term holder, or LTH, owned coins are in profit.
“Similar to the Reserve Risk metric, these studies suggest conditions are almost like the last half or later stages of a market. There remains a bigger relative portion of supply still held by LTHs having only spent 9% since the assumed Peak HODL point.”
Glassnode isn’t alone in speculating the end of the bull season might also be looming, with Chinese mining pool BTC.TOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer speculating the market might be over as soon as September.
While addressing to the native media earlier on 21st March, he cited a general economic recovery amid Coronavirus vaccine rollouts and a possible waning interest in crypto assets should the recent trend of huge corporations like Tesla and MicroStrategy adding Bitcoin to their treasury reserves cease to continue as likely catalysts for a market reversal.
Investment manager Timothy Peterson also noted the recent decline in whales, stating: “such moves are often but not always related to bear markets.” Peterson speculated that Bitcoin’s price could drop as low as $25k.